ATTIVITA' SOLARE E TERREMOTI: LA SCIENZA SI MUOVE !

IL NOSTRO PROGETTO DI "MULTIDISCIPLINARIETA' ", STA DANDO I SUOI FRUTTI.
OGGI ARRICCHIAMO IL NOSTRO BLOG CON UN NUOVO CONSULENTE E COLLABORATORE, IL DOTT. MIGUEL LUNETTA, INGEGNERE E FISICO.

LA SUA QUARANTENNALE ESPERIENZA ACCADEMICA E DI RICERCA E' MOLTO IMPORTANTE PER NOI, PERCHE' DIMOSTRA CHE LA VIA CHE ABBIAMO INTRAPRESO VERSO UNA DIVULGAZIONE DELLA "CONOSCENZA" CORAGGIOSA, SCOMODA, PIENA DI DUBBI E ASSOLUTAMENTE MAI DEFINITIVA, E' FORSE QUELLA GIUSTA.

MIGUEL, HA COMBATTUTO TUTTA LA VITA NEL VERO SENSO DELLA PAROLA.
DOPO I CAMPI DI BATTAGLIA, SI E' SPOSTATO SUI CAMPI DEL DIRITTO ALLA CONOSCENZA ED A QUELLO DEI DIRITTI CIVILI, HA CONOSCIUTO LA PRIGIONIA E LA TORTURA, MA NON SI E' DATO PER VINTO MAI.

OGGI E' QUI PER TESTIMONIARLO  CON UNA TEORIA ANCORA RITENUTA OSTICA, MA CHE ORMAI LA SCIENZA UFFICIALE NON PUO' PIU' IGNORARE.

MLR

Outline of solar flares and earthquakes

di: Dott. M. Lunetta

Abstract: In this paper we traced a quick review of historical records of global volcanic activity, where a strong correlation with solar activity may be found.  In fact, the earthquake occur frequently in the minimum period of solar activity, as in the last earthquake of Japan. In 2015, two orbiter will be launched, thru which British and Russian scientists will pick up the electromagnetic signal that announce the earthquake. The benefits of predicting earthquakes and volcanoes eruptions are evident.

Résumé: Dans cet article nous traçons une brève revision des documents historiques de l’activité volcanique globale, ou l’on peut trouver une forte corrélation avec l’activité solaire. En effect, le tremblement de terre arrive fréquemment dans le periode de activité solaire minima, ainsi comme fut dans le dernier tremblement du Japon. Em 2015, seront lancées deux satellites, au moyen desquels cientifiques Britanniques et Russes capterons les rayonnement éléctromagnetiques qui annoncent le tremblement de terre. Les avantages de prévoir tremblements de terre et des éruptions des volcans sont évidents.

I.  INTRODUCTION

α) John L. Casey(1) released for world wide web (www) distribution an independent review of historical records performed for 350 years of global volcanic activity (1650-2009) and seismic (earthquake) activity for the past 300 years (1700 to 2009) within the continental United States, and then compared to the Sun’s record of sunspots as a measure of solar activity. There exists a strong correlation between the solar activity and the Earth largest volcanic and seismic events. Such a tool may provide valuable method for protection of people and property located in and around high geologic risk zones.

John L. Casey is President of Verity Mgmt.Svcs Inc. and Director of the Space and Science Research Center (SSRC).

From historical record of volcanic eruptions developed by the Smithsonian Institute, an extraction was made of all that were rated eruptions of Volcano Explosive Index (VEI) of “5” or greater.

In the article of Space and Science Research Center are mentioned volcanoes of greater than or equal to VEI of 5 from 1650 to 2009. The most ancient is eruption of Kamchatka Peninsula Shiveluch, May 1650. The most recent is eruption of Hudson, Cerro So. Chile 1991.

β) In the conclusions of Casey’s article it is observed that exist a strong correlation between global volcanic activity, among the largest of classes of eruptions, and solar activity lows. The theory of solar activity may be tool for forecast of global volcanism.

γ) The theory for future extended solar minimum may also be effective in forecasts of major earthquakes in USA.

δ) The current solar hibernation recently started may result in historic volcanic eruptions and global scale record earthquake activity within the continental United States.

ε) Determination of solar activity cycles may indicate timing and intensity of geophysical events like earthquakes and volcanism points toward possible connection between the solar activity and the underlying causes of the geophysical events, plate tectonics namely.

ζ) It is expected at any time and beginning during the next twenty years of the solar hibernation, volcanic eruptions potentially historic and new record earthquakes are likely within the continental United States.

η) Many authors (1-6) have studied the role of extraterrestrial factors in terrestrial seismicity. As triggers of seismic activity have been proposed: solar proton fluxes (7), solar and lunar tides (8), high speed solar wind (9), eastward movement of the magnetopause as a result of increased solar wind dynamic pressure (10).

θ) The Catalogue of Ancient Earthquakes in the Mediterranean Area (11) compiles information gathered from ancient books and chronicles about earthquakes from 760 BC to 995 AD. The largest set of solar activity data is based on the estimation of Shove (12) from records about auroras and sunspot groups visible with naked eye, where the years of minima and maxima of the 11-year solar activity cycles are given together with approximate values of the maxima. Shove’s data set covers the period from 649 B.C. to present.

ι) The main source of high-speed solar wind is solar coronal holes and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). For the CMEs an additional factor is their size and speed.

II.  EARTHQUAKE-SOLAR ACTIVITY RELATION

α) There has been a clear correlation proved between Sun Induced Earthquake Activity and Daily Total Earthquakes Energy Released. Patrick Geryl’s prediction of the 87 days intervals of solar storms have independently been linked. Dougstarmist.com reported this recently and analyzed George Ure’s findings.

β) Recent scientific research confirms a connection between high-  energy charged particles in the ionosphere and earthquakes. A study conducted in 2008 by Jann-Yeng Liu, from Center for Space and Remote Sensing Research in Chung-Li, Taiwan, examined more than 100 earthquakes with magnitudes of 5.0 or larger in Taiwan over several decades. The results indicate that almost all of the quakes down to a 35 Km depth were preceded by distinct electrical disturbance in the ionosphere.

Solar activity is picking up in the current Cycle 24. Presently (May 10), is observed the connection between Solar Activity, Volcanic Eruptions and Earthquakes.

On April 3rd, the largest solar storm of Cycle 24, also called a coronal mass ejection (CME) took place. The solar wind hit Earth on Monday, April 5th and sparked the strongest geomagnetic storm of the year. The event registered a geomagnetic index Kp7 (on a 0-9 scale). On May 5th another solar eruption came from a spotless region near the sun’s southwestern limb, producing a bright coronal mass ejection (CME) and came to an end on May 9th.

The solar activity affects the Earth’s magnetic field. Some science is starting to emerge that demonstrates a possible connection between solar activity and the Earth’s events like earthquakes, volcanoes, hurricanes, floods and storms.

γ) Thru the relations between sunspots numbers and earthquakes (M≥6), solar 10.7 cm  radio flux and earthquakes, solar proton events and earthquakes, it has been found (13) that:

1. Earthquakes occur frequently around the minimum years of   solar activity.

2. The earthquake frequency in the minimum years of solar activity is closely related to the maximum annual means of sunspot numbers, the maximum annual means of solar 10.7cm radio flux and solar proton events of whole solar cycle, and the relation between earthquake and solar proton events is closed than others.

3. As judged by above interrelationship, the period from 1995 to 1997 was the years while earthquakes activity was frequent.

  ε) According to the observations, prognostications, and comments by NW7US(14) (Tomas David Hood, Propagation and Space Weather Columnist for CQ Communication) we have “HF Conditions 2 March to 3 March 2011 Good to Poor”:

Will see a continuation of sunspot activity, but with increased geomagnetic disturbances. This will degrade HF communications on higher frequencies. There is a chance of moderate X-ray flare activity, as well. The background X-ray flux will be in the low to mid “B” range. High latitude paths will be fair if the magnetic field remains low, but poor when the geomagnetic field is disturbed.

We are certainly in the phase of Sunspot Cycle 24. While it has been a slow up-tick over the last eighteen months, I expect to see a more rapid rise during mid to late 2011.

III. EARTHQUAKE RECENT EVENT

As we read in 2. §γ), the earthquakes occur frequently around the minimum years of solar activity, and are closely related to the maximum annual means of sunspot numbers.

Within this generic forecasting method it is obvious to register the occurrence of earthquake and tsunami in Japan on 2011/03/14:46 LT. In Sendai, coast town at NE of Japan disappeared 1.085 inhabitants, and 1.353 died. The government fears that victims are more than 10 thousand.

According to a survey of the Geological Service Research of the EUA

(USGS), this earthquake had 8.9 degree of magnitude and it was followed by more than 20 secondary tremors, during some hours, the most of them having magnitude over 6.0. Four trains of the states of Miyagi, Iwate and Chiba disappeared under the water. The town of Rikuzentakata was  practically destroyed by a tidal wave of 10 meters.

This earthquake had epicenter  at 380 Km at NE of Tokyo, at 125 Km from the Japanese east coast, 10 Km deep. Just after the earthquake, a giant wave of 10 m reached parts of NE coast (towns of Sendai, Kesennuma, Ouahara, Yamamoto and Asahi). The Japan emitted an emergency alert for a nuclear plant whose refrigerating system had a mechanical fault. Lately, the Japanese government confirmed the leakage in the nuclear plant Fukushima Daiichi N°1 and ordered the emerging retreat of residents on a ray of 10 Km around the installations. Emergency state was declared also in nuclear plant of Onagawa (NE).

IV.  CONCLUSIONS

     α) The last occurrence of earthquake (16-17) in Japan confirmed that the rising phase of Sunspot Cycle 24 became more rapid during mid 2011 year, and can be closely related to the minimum of solar activity. This minimum can be observed in a coronal photo (15) of 2011/03/13,  01:13.

     β) We need to pay attention to an Anglo- Russian project consisting of two satellites to be launched in 2015(18). In recent days, was presented in Moscow “TwinSat”, an Anglo-Russian scientific project, which should allow one day scholars to predict where and when future earthquake will occur. British and Russian scientists next week will work together to develop two satellites will be launched into space in 2015ee will have the task of picking up those electromagnetic signals that announce the earthquakes.

                γ) The electromagnetic signals detected by satellites, that have very small size, will be collected together with data coming from the underground terrain and the scientists should be able to understand what the notices announcing the natural earthquakes. The first two satellites will monitor areas with high volcanic and seismic activity such as Iceland and the Kamchatka Peninsula, a territory of 472 thousand square meters which is located on the eastern outskirts of Russia, not far from Japan:

     “Before an earthquake within the Earth accumulates a lot of tension-all states” Independent of London Professor Alan Smith, director of the Mullard Space Science Laboratory at University College London (UCL)-. Subtle electromagnetic signals are realized and these can be cultured in the upper atmosphere.”

       ε) The project, described by Professor Smith as “a new milestone in space cooperation  between Russia and the United Kingdom” could radically change the way we feel as earthquakes. It is also the cheap because the cost of these small satellites into space is not excessive:”They are incredible because you can hold in the palm of your hand-Sammonds said Peter, a professor of Geophysics at UCLA-.If the project is successful as we hope, will send more satellites into space and increase coverage of areas at risk.” Vitaly Chmyrev, a professor at the Institute of Earth Physics in Moscow, says that last year, just days before the devastating earthquake in Haiti, the satellites were able to capture electromagnetic signals from this area, but this were analyzed only in the aftermath the tragedy:”Imagine if you had been able to predict this earthquake just a few weeks ago-said the professor Chmyrev-Or if we had foreseen the eruption of the Icelandic volcano that has paralyzed the airways for weeks. Potential benefits, human and economic costs are enormous.”

       ζ) In this moment of scientific, economic and technologic development of the humankind,it is a paradox that political or opportunist considerations make difficult to establish a clear strategy to prevent all peoples from catastrophic effects of the natural disasters and to develop all means of assistance after eventual adverse events.

       The strategy that we mention must be free of any demagogic or chauvinist intent, because the Earth and the mankind which lives in it demand to be managed by ways supported from a mentality radically cosmopolitan.

(mikelunetta@gmail.com)

References:

1Casey, John L., The existence of “Relational Cycles” of solar activity on the multidecadal to cent-

tennial scale, the models of climate change significant on Earth, Research Report 1-2008 January 22, 2008, Space and Science Research Center (SSRC).

2R.M.C. Lopes, S. R. C. Malin, and A. Mazzarella, Lunar and solar triggering of earthquakes, Phys. Earth Planet. Inter, vol.99.pp.127-129,1990.

3O.A.Khachay, On the study of a statistical association between tectonic activity and solar activity using methods from the mathematical theory of entropy, Vulk. Seismol., vol.1, pp.45-51, 1994.

4A.D. Sytinskii, Influence of interplanetary disturbances on the seismicity and atmosphere of the Earth, Geomagn. Aeron., vol.37(2), pp.138-140, 1997.

5J. Souchay and M. Stavinski, Study of the correlations between long-periodic terrestrial tides and occurrence of earthquakes in the Vrances site, Earth, Moon, and Planets, vol. 77(2), pp. 105-174, 1997.

6N. N. Volodichev, B. M. Kuzchevskii and V. Nechav, Solar-Lunar-Terrestrial Relationship, Peaks of Neutron Emission and Seismic Activity, Astron. Vestnik, vol.34, pp.173-176, 2000.

7P. Velinov, The effect of solar activity and geophysical processes, Bulg Geofiz. Spis., vol.1, pp.51-77, 1975.

8I. Jakubcova and M. Pick, Correlation between solar motion, earthquakes and other geophysical phenomena, Annls. Geophys., vol.5(B), pp.135-141, 1987.

9A. D. Sytinskii, On the relation between earthquakes and activity, Fizika Zemli, vol. 2, pp. 13-30, 1989.

10I. N. Makarova and A. V. Shirodikov, On the connection between the Earth’s magnetosphere-magnetopause position and the earthquakes occurrence, Abstracts of XXVI General Assembly URS1, Toronto, Canada, August 13-21, 1999, p. 755.

11B. Guidoboni with the collaboration of A. Comastri and G. Traina, Catalogue of Ancient Earthquakes in the Mediterranean Area up to the 10th Century, Roma, Instituto Nazionale di Geofisica, 1995.

12D. J. Schove, The sunspot cycle, 649 B. C. to A. D. 2000, J. Geophys. Res. Vol. 60, pp. 127-135, 1955.

13Study: Beijing Astronomical Observatory, Chinese Academy of Science, 100101 Beijing, China.

14Tomas David Hood, The NW7US Current Sunspot and Geophysical Activity Report.

15http://sohowww, nascom.nasa.gov/data/realtime/eit_195/1024/latest.html

16Marco Garcia/AP/AE, Tremor e tsunami arrasam Japão, Correio da Paraíba, p. A5, 12 March 2011.

17Brasilian TV repórter, Terremoto e Tsunami no Japão, Globo News, 11 March 2011.

18Francesco Tortora, Arriva il satellite che studia i terremoti, Corriere della Sera, 20 February 2011.

CHI E’ MIGUEL LUNETTA:

Miguel Lunetta è nato a Caltanissetta(Sicilia) dove è rimasto fino alla fine degli studi liceali presso  l’istituto Ruggero Settimo.

Iniziati gli studi in Ingegneria Meccanica presso l’Università La Sapienza di Roma, fu convocato al servizio militare obbligatorio e destinato al 5º Reggimento di Artiglieria di Corpo d’Armata di Pola(Istria). Con il  grado di caporale fu trasferito all’accademia di Salerno dove fu promosso sergente e, successivamente sottotenente di Artiglieria.

Al termine della 2ª Guerra Mondiale, fu congedato con grado di Tenente.  Ripresi  gli studi all’Università di Roma, si laureò in Ingegneria Meccanica e si sposò con la biologa romana Marcella Mastrageli, dalla quale ebbe due figlie, Anna e Laura. Fu assunto, come ex-combattente, con la mansione di assistente tecnico, al Genio Civile di Genova da dove si spostò successivamente a Ravenna, Matera e Pisa. Da Pisa si trasferì come emigrante, col patrocinio del CIME, in Brasile nel 1958 dove lavorò come tecnico meccanico nelle fabbriche automobilistiche Tecnogeral, Willys Overland, Ford e Chrysler.

Conclusa a São Paulo la laurea in Física, fu ammesso come ricercatore in Fisica Ionosférica presso la Commissione Nazionale di Attività Spaziali (CNAE) a São José dos Campos dove frequentò i corsi di Ingegneria Aero-Spaziale presso l’Istituto Tecnico dell’Aeronautica . Trasferito all’Istituto di Fisica dell’Università di Brasilia  ottenne il titolo di Mestre em Ciências difendendo la tesi nella quale le osservazioni con  RIOMETRO dell’assorbimento ionosferico sono legate all’attività solare e all’esplosione di ordigni nucleari nella ionosfera.

L’interpretazione fisica delle condizioni di propagazione delle radioonde forniscono le previsioni dei black-out che affettano la propagazione e la sicurezza delle comunicazioni nella navigazione aero- spaziale.

Accusato di sovversione per aver partecipato ai movimenti studenteschi contro la dittatura militare, fu allontanato dall’Università di Brasilia e occupò per concorso una cattedra all’Università di Rio Claro da dove fu nuovamente allontanato per sovversione, fu imprigionato  e crudelmente bastonato, torturato e sottoposto a elettrochoc.

Dopo 45 giorni,  fu liberato per intervento della Croce Rossa Internazionale, seguì un periodo di recupero nel quale venne informato da un amico che era aperto In João Pessoa (Paraíba) il concorso ad un posto di professore assistente nel Dipartimento di Fisica dell’Università Federale (UFPB). Si spostò a João Pessoa e si sottopose agli esami di prassi vincendo il relativo concorso ottenendo il posto presso l’UFPB dove insegnò sino al 1981, data in cui fu collocato in pensione , per raggiunti limiti di età.

Durante gli ultimi 7 anni di attività accademica presso l’ UFPB, Lunetta fu più volte sospeso dall’insegnamento per propaganda ritenuta sovversiva.  Neppure uno sciopero di fame di 17 giorni riuscì a sensibilizzare i “baroni” del regime autoritario- accademico della Neo-Inquisizione che, sotto il conclamato “influsso” dei “cattolici vaticanisti” dell’UFPB, perseveravano nell’ignorare la libertà di pensiero e il sottosviluppo del paese.

In cooperazione  con M.A.Abdu, ha pubblicato uno studio sull’ “Assorbimento Ionosferico in São José dos Campos” nella “Revista Brasileira de Física” (1971) e, in cooperazione com A. Teixeira e I.Wolk, il lavoro di Fisica Teorica “Pure Massless Scalar Geon” nel Physical Review (1982).

Miguel Lunetta fondò nel 1986 il Partido Popular Progressista(PPP) e, nel 1988, fu uno dei fondatori del Partido da socialdemocracia Brasileira(PSDB) che ebbe nel PPP una delle sue principali radici ideologiche.

Attualmente l’autore si dedica allo studio e alla ricerca teorica di Cosmologia e Gravitazione, campo nel quale ha pubblicato vari articoli nella rivista canadese Physics Essays.  http://physicsessays.org/doi/abs/10.4006/1.3253681
 E' editorialista e scrive articoli di cultura e politica per i giornali Brasiliani: A Uniao, Correio Brasiliense, Correio de Paraiba, O Norte.
Ha pubblicato anche: West Atlantic Scenery: Um ano de Politica on-line, com illustracoes de Flavio Tavares 1998; Panteismo, editora Ideia -Joao Pessoa, 2009.